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Intermarket Analysis and Investing: Integrating Economic, Fundamental, and Technical Trends, by Michael E.S. Gayed
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Written in 1990 and re-released with a foreword by Michael A. Gayed in 2013, this eye-opening book brings together the most relied upon tools of market analysis.
Michael E.S. Gayed clearly explains how this powerful combination of major schools of thought of market analysis can help investors dramatically improve their judgment on likely market performance and spot important trends, thereby making successful investment decisions.
Intermarket Analysis and Investing begins with an overview of investment analysis that examines types of risk and portfolio structuring. Then it moves on to the three prominent schools of thought in market analysis with discussions of:
1) Economic analysis, which is primarily concerned with the state of business, and anticipates phases of economic expansion and contraction by focusing on economic indicators
2) Fundamental analysis, the most widely followed and practiced form of analysis, it looks at the accounting and financial position of companies in an attempt to evaluate intrinsic worth and true stock value
3) Technical analysis or the market-timing school, practiced by "believers in the supremacy of trend analysis," and followers of the ticker tape, It is primarily concerned with the dynamics behind the fluctuation in the price of a stock
This book also examines the positive aspects and pitfalls to contrarian investing, top-down and bottom-up market approaches, comparative market analysis, and common-sense trend analysis.
By integrating economic, fundamental, and technical quantitative analysis into a sensible working framework, Intermarket Analysis and Investing exposes the inherent short-comings of relying too heavily or exclusively on any single approach. Each school of stock market analysis is thoroughly examined so that the reader can understand each approach and how it interacts with the others.
Part II stresses the economic by analyzing the most important aspects of the business cycle, the Fed's role in managing the balance of inflation and unemployment, and factors investors should watch to tame market risk and minimize loss during downtrends.
It is here that the importance of economic indicators is emphasized, with an in-depth discussion of the 11 leading indicators that monitor the economy and help the investor anticipate long-term business trends, the four coincident indicators that help verify the predictability of the leading indicators, and the lagging indicators that help spot emerging structural trends.
Part III discusses the use of fundamental analysis, which compares the growth and finances of different securities and industry groups. It shows how earnings, sales, book value, P/E multiples, leverage, liquidity, and/or profitability of companies are used to reveal the worth of a security as an investment. The commodities market and the effect of globalization of securities markets are also examined.
Part IV shows how quantitative market analysis aids active investors in determining the short-or immediate-term direction of stocks. Intermarket Analysis and Investing shows how to improve investment decisions by integrating the best features of fundamental analysis and some well-known market timing techniques described and illustrated in this section.
The final section of the book provides insightful investment strategies that are based on the intermarket relationships previously discussed. By integrating the methods described in detail in this book, investors stand a much better chance of profiting from market opportunities and of achieving their objectives.
- Sales Rank: #128542 in eBooks
- Published on: 2013-06-04
- Released on: 2013-06-04
- Format: Kindle eBook
Most helpful customer reviews
11 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
Caveat Emptor
By BlackCatt
IA&I is a quintessential reference for anyone interested in trading the markets, newby to professional. My favorite thing about the book is Mr. Gayed's respect for the reader. Regardless of how simple or complex the subject matter at hand, the voice is educational and encouraging. The book starts out very basic, almost a little too basic for sophisticated types, but quickly gets into the meat of what hungry minds crave.
As a professional trader I've read dozens of books on every facet of market intelligence. There's simply no other text that ties together the myriad factors affecting markets in the succinct, systematic approach outlined by Mr. Gayed. This is a "must own" for anyone interested in a true education of how the world's best professional money managers approach the profession and interpret the often conflicting whims of esoteric economic, quantitative, technical, and fundamental data.
You'll never feel dumb when reading this book, except in hindsight. ;)
-DP
9 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
Summing up the book in one word: Process
By Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA
“Recognizing that the stock market is a difficult game to play and admitting that investing in securities is an art, we can only preface this book by saying, ‘Good luck.’”
So writes Michael E.S. Gayed in the forward to Intermarket Analysis and Investing, originally published in 1990 and republished in 2013.
Outside of politics, few areas of life are in greater need of fresh thinking than the investment profession. Like students of political ideologies or religious cults, investors often fall into dogmatic camps. There are chartists, who view stock patterns as if they are prophetic views of the future. There are value investors who view the utterances of Warren Buffett and Benjamin graham like divine revelations. There are trend followers…and contrarians who actively bet against the prevailing trend.
There is a dedicated core of followers for virtually any investing style you can imagine (and plenty that you can’t). But the problem with rigid schools of thought is that what works in one market does not necessarily work in another.
This is the basis of Gayed’s book. Rather than lean too heavily on one particular method, with all of its inherent flaws, Gayed attempted to meld the various schools of thought into a unified process. He’s not the first analyst to do so, and he certainly wasn’t the last. But his attempt is one of the most comprehensive I’ve seen, and it was made over 20 years ago.
Investment books tend to have a somewhat finite shelf life. Stories and anecdotes can look somewhat dated with the passing of time. But as with Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis, first published during the pits of the Great Depression, there is value in studying historical anecdotes and in reading a contemporary account of the times. History tends to get “scrubbed” with the passing of time, which makes learning its lessons more abstract and difficult. Gayed’s book fits a particular time period—the late 1980s and very early 1990s—making it an effective time capsule of the era immediately preceding the Internet Revolution.
One of the aspects I most respect about Gayed’s work is that he is intellectually honest. Investing isn’t easy, and no “how to” book is a guarantee of success. You will make mistakes along the way, but those mistakes make you a better investor if you make analyzing them part of your process.
And this is really the key word: process. All 484 pages of the book can essentially be boiled down to one critical point: you must have a rigorous investment process in place. The process can take different forms, but a regular assessment of the results should be a key part of it. Process brings order from the chaos and prevents your investment decisions from being “a random walk of trial and error.” And if it is failing to deliver results, “perhaps the whole process should be examined to uncover where things went wrong.”
Well said, Mr. Gayed.
Gayed addresses the strengths and weaknesses of each of the major schools of investing thought. For example, of fundamental analysis he writes that it is “more reliable than any other approach…tangible and logical.” But also acknowledging its shortcomings, he notes that “fundamentals tend to lag behind the price action. The discounting mechanism of the market often senses evolving financial problems before the company actually discloses them.”
Similarly, Gayed notes that quantitative market timing approaches are “most helpful in allowing investors to buy or sell a security at the most opportune price.” But they can also let you “get carried away in a frenzy of speculation and overtrading, eventually becoming a gambler.” And remember, Gayed wrote this in the days before discounted internet trading and algorithmic bots!
I liked Gayed’s comments on contrarian investing because I see some of my own psychological shortcomings in his words. While betting against the crowd at key moments can by wildly profitable, “The crowd is not wrong at all market junctures… The only correct application of the contrarian approach occurs when market psychology reaches unanimity in either direction. Beware of being a contrarian all the time, since this attitude violates the well-established norms of trend following.”
Given my experience of working with Harry Dent for the better part of a decade, I found Gayed’s comments on demographics to be particularly interesting. Dent made several bold predictions that proved to be correct and became a very successful New York Times bestselling author in the early 1990s by using demographics as a forecasting tool. I still consider his first bestseller—1993’s The Great Boom Ahead—to be his best.
Dent is widely considered to be the first analyst to effectively use demographics in the investment process. But Gayed appears to have independently reached many of the same conclusions at around the same time:
All industry groups are affected in varying degrees by demographics. Beginning in the 1970s, the economy has felt the impact of the baby boomers—those born between 1945 and 1960… The influence of demographics is likely to continue into the first quarter of the next century as the baby boomers grow older. There might be increased demand for such services as health care, banking, investments, insurance, nursing homes, leisure, travel, etc… Demographics should be factored into the overall investment strategy.
This could have been written today, but Gayed wrote it in 1990. The prescience is impressive.
Gayed saves some of his best insights for last in the section on intermarket relationships. The capital markets are a complex organism. “Market links are interrelated, and they tend to feed on each other… The commodities market, for example, influences the trend of interest rates, which affect the bond market. This, in turn, impacts securities prices.”
In this era of central bank intervention, it’s important to remember not to view each segment of the market in isolation. Intermarket analysis is complicated…and messy…and you won’t always put the pieces together. But it should be part of the thought process that goes into your asset allocation. Gayed notes that an astute investor would have seen that the accelerating inflation of the 1970s would have been great for commodities but terrible for bonds. But when the Fed’s high interest rates in the 1980s halted inflation, the high real interest rates in place set the stage for a long-term bull market in bonds…which in turn led to a long-term bull market in stocks.
I would add that more recently, investors with a deeper understanding of intermarket dynamics would have known that the Fed’s explosive growth in its balance sheet would not be inflationary given the debt deflation going on in the private sector. First order thinking would tell you to expect inflation. Second order thinking would tell you to expect flat or even falling prices.
Oh, and remember “TED spreads”? These are the spreads between Treasury bills and Eurodollar rates that become front-page news during the 2008 meltdown when the capital markets ceased to function. Few people had ever heard of TED spreads prior to 2008. Gayed was writing about them in 1990.
I recommend you pick up a copy of Intermarket Analysis. Gayed’s magnum opus is an exhaustive collection of investment insights that he has done a remarkable job of funneling into a cohesive framework for analysis. The sheer scope of material covered would put most MBA programs to shame.
7 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Trading The Macro View and Price Action
By Steve Burns
"If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess." -Paul Tudor Jones
In this book Michael E.S. Gayed takes readers through how financial markets inter-relate with each other to signal possible trends in prices across different financial markets. The book shows readers the characteristics of cyclical peaks and troughs and attempts to give them the tenets of multidisciplinary analysis to identify them in real time. The author shows through charts how markets are cyclical in nature and tied to the business cycle. Whether an investor is an economist, a fundamentalist, or a market timer, he is betting on the trend. Investors should not try to forecast the trend but follow it as long as it exists and recognize unemotionally when the weight of the evidence points to a change in course. This is a book about the basics of how consumer demand, unemployment, interest rates, and other fundamental factors effect the price action of the stock market. This is a great place to start for readers interested in learning about the macro view when investing or trading.
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